Popular prediction market platform Polymarket could be facing a potential ban in France amid gambling concerns.
L’Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), France’s National Gambling Authority, which is responsible for regulating all forms of gambling within the country, has also raised legal concerns over Polymarket as significant bets on political outcomes have put the platform under increased scrutiny.
Earlier in the week, we reported on Polymarket and similar prediction market site Kalshi stealing the thunder of the Apple App Store, topping the charts of Free Apps downloads, and enjoying unprecedented interest in the US just hours before the electoral college vote in the presidential race was decided.
This was despite the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) drawing attention to the fact that, provided the two platforms were allowed to keep running their betting markets, they would undermine the election’s fairness.
Moreover, Polymarket received support from US-based social media influencers like Eric Pan of @ericnomics and well-known meme accounts like @moist and @hoodclips, to push election betting, despite federal rules prohibiting Americans from placing bets on the descentralized platform.
France Could Limit Access to Polymarket
Now, France is considering limiting access to Polymarket due to concerns over unlicensed gambling activities, according to French web3-focused publication The Big Whale.
The platform’s model of betting on future events using cryptocurrency falls under the definition of gambling within French law, subjecting the platform to strict regulations and potential bans.
“Even if Polymarket uses cryptocurrencies in its operations, it remains a betting activity and this is not legal in France,” said a source close to the ANJ.
Since its launch in 2020, Polymarket has raised $74 million from venture capital funds and prominent figures in crypto, including Ethereum co-designer Vitalik Buterin.
The platform’s popularity soared, particularly during the US presidential election, with over $3.2 billion in bets placed.
Data from Dune Analytics showed Polymarket recorded a trading volume of $294 million on November 5 alone.
French Trader Placed $30M+ in Bets on Trump Winning
William O’Rorke, a partner at ORWL Avocats, explained that despite Polymarket not specifically targeting French users, the ANJ has the authority to block its operations in France if it finds the platform in violation of national laws.
The report indicated that the regulator’s interest was sparked by a French trader under the name Théo, who placed massive bets on a Trump victory, according to The Big Whale.
The Frenchman placed over $30 million in bets, with expected net profits of around $19 million.
Before The Wall Street Journal published an interview with Théo, his massive bets had sparked speculation that someone was trying to manipulate the market.
However, the man explained to the Journal that he simply believed Trump was the likely winner.
His bet ultimately earned him a substantial $49 million payout (net profits of around $19 million) after the race was called for Trump early Wednesday, according to platform data.
The ANJ confirmed to The Big Whale that they were “currently examining its operation as well as its compliance with French gambling legislation.”
As part of the settlement reached with the CFTC in early 2022, the platform paid a $1.4 million fine for operating as an unregistered trading platform and agreed to cease operations for US residents and citizens.
If similar measures will follow in France, it remains to be seen.
