Less than two weeks until the Presidential Election in the United States, the interest in election betting markets on Kalshi, the popular regulated exchange and prediction market, continues to grow.
Election Markets Can Be More Accurate than Polling
The upcoming election has attracted more than $70 million worth of trading since the company was allowed to relaunch election betting earlier this month, Covers reports. Jack Such, a spokesperson for Kalshi, explained that demand for its services soared recently. While the demand continues to grow, the company’s representative predicted another boom in the days just ahead of the election.
Such explained that based on the company’s experience in other jurisdictions, prediction markets can explode with “almost half of all trading volume to happen in the days running up to the election.” He spoke about the importance of allowing Americans across the country to buy and sell trading contracts on the upcoming election, adding that such markets serve as the most efficient tool for consolidating and analyzing such information.
Moreover, Such pointed out: “Election markets not only enable hedging candidate risk, increasing economic stability, they also provide a public good: a sentiment indicator more accurate than polling that updates in real time.”
Kalshi Isn’t Subject to Particular Restrictions from the CFTC
Kalshi’s relaunch of election betting followed an appeals court’s decision that sided with the company in the legal challenge with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). While the CFTC has an active appeal, Kalshi was permitted to reintroduce election betting or as the company refers to the activity “event trading contracts” on the upcoming elections.
On that topic, Kalshi’s spokesperson explained that the CFTC hasn’t enforced any restrictions against the company. Such admitted that Kalshi continues to collaborate with the Commission and address suspicious activities for all the different markets it offers, not only for the ones on the upcoming election. “Our compliance team regularly blocks or suspends users as part of our stringent anti-money-laundering standards, but nothing very notable has happened,” the spokesperson added.
The Company Expands Its Markets on the Upcoming US Elections
Earlier this month, Kalshi added more than 25 new political betting markets. According to Such, Kalshi will continue to add more markets “by the day.”
Not unexpectedly, the market that attracts the most action is “Who will win the Presidential Election?” At the time of writing, this particular market has attracted more than $58.6 million. Per the market, the chances of Donald Trump winning the upcoming election are at 58%, while his opponent, Democrat Kamala Harris is forecasted at 42%.
Besides the outcome of the upcoming elections, other markets have also captured the attention of bettors, including “Who will win the popular vote?”, “Who will win Pennsylvania in the Presidential Election?”, “Popular vote margin of victory?” and “Senate margin of victory?”, among others.
