Posted on: October 31, 2024, 12:22h.
Last updated on: October 31, 2024, 12:51h.
With just five days remaining before the 2024 election, betting markets continue to suggest that former President Donald Trump will emerge victorious once the November 5 votes are tallied. However, Vice President Kamala Harris’ odds have shortened in recent days, begging the question: is the Democratic candidate experiencing a last-minute push, or are bettors with positions on Trump hedging?
No betting exchange has taken more money on the 2024 presidential election than Polymarket. The peer-to-peer cryptocurrency-based predictions market platform has facilitated $2.8 billion in wagers on who will become the 47th president of the United States.
Trump remains the betting front-runner, with his shares trading at implied odds of 64% as of noon EST on October 31. Harris remains the underdog at 36%.
Harris’ odds have improved over the past 24 hours from 33.3%. Trump’s stock was trading Wednesday at 66.6%. Kalshi, another exchange that only recently launched its 2024 election contest and, therefore, has considerably less money on the outcome, has experienced similar movement in Harris’ favor.
Kalshi bettors give Trump a 59% chance of winning to Harris at 41%. Just two days ago, Trump’s stock was trading at 65%.
Harris Momentum
It’s difficult to say whether bettors of late are putting big money on Harris to improve her 2024 betting odds or if Trump bettors are simply hedging their action to guarantee a win or limit their risk to a Harris win.
Hedging is the process of betting the opposite outcome of the bettor’s original wager after the likelihood of the first bet winning increases. Hedging can allow a bettor to guarantee a net win, though the action cuts into the original bet’s profit if it goes on to win.
At BetMGM in Ontario where gaming regulators allow oddsmakers to take action on political outcomes, something no state gaming agency in the US has yet done, Trump is a substantial favorite at -200 (1/2, implied odds 66.6%). A winning $100 bet on that line would net $50. Harris is the BetMGM underdog at +160 (8/5, 38.5%). A winning $100 wager on that line would net $160.
Do Foreign Bettors Know US Politics?
Kalshi’s 2024 election betting market went live in September after a federal appeals court in Washington, DC, overruled the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) order for the online wagering exchange not to offer election markets. The landmark decision, pending a possible appeal by the CFTC, solidified wagering exchanges’ ability to offer election contracts in a peer-to-peer format. Legal sportsbooks across the nation remain prohibited from taking traditional sports bets on political outcomes.
Kalshi’s late introduction to the 2024 contest has resulted in its presidential election market fielding only a fraction of the handle wagered on Polymarket. To date, the Kalshi contest between Trump and Harris has seen $123.8 million in trades.
Polymarket has 22 times more action but unlike Kalshi, Polymarket doesn’t allow bettors in the US to participate.
Polymarket banned US bettors after the CFTC in early 2022 alleged the platform was operating illegal trading services. In part of the settlement, Polymarket agreed to stop allowing US-based customers.
Of course, tech-savvy computer users can bypass the digital barrier through the use of a virtual private network, or VPN. But the bulk of the $2.8 billion bet has presumably come from traders based outside of the US. The same goes for the action in Canada, where sportsbooks have more liability on Trump.
US citizens will have the final say next week on who is truly favored.
